The pre scripted, nuclear trust drama is nearing its climax. With so much money and power in hand, it should not be difficult to induce abstentions and realignments in opposition ranks. The Government will win the trust vote by only hook and crook. And there may be difference of more than ten votes.
Sometimes people who watch it from near by do not predict it correctly but people far away who are used to gather as many opinions, analyse faces of the interviewed and with some mathematical acumen can predict the inevitable more accurately. No channel or newspaper is predicting what I have so far. Everyone predicts it to be too close to call mainly because they want to increase the suspense. But the body language of the UPA folks show it off. They will make it.
It is a well known fact that the Left and congress had to be in opposite blocks at the time of election when ever it is held. It will be very difficult for the Left if they had remained as out side supporters till the time elections are announced and then fight against them. So it is obvious that they were looking for an opportunity to break ranks. And they knew it well that time was running out for the deal. That is why they chose this as a pretext to withdraw support. And that is why I say this is pre scripted. It suits both the camps. The deal has resulted in realignment of political forces and further cornering of their arch rival BJP. After election the mathematics of coalition may change alignments once again. But it is this set up which will ensure Left numbers in the next house. Otherwise they were facing depletion of their present strength. It is not a gamble but a well thought pre planned rightly timed withdrawal of support.
Trust vote, the government will win in the house but what about it in the next elections. Will the people forget inflation for energy? CNN-IBN says most urban in India say Singh is right. while Star Tv says most do not know about the deal and prefer advani. 29% say it should be him. 19% say Manmohan, 14% for Sonia and 11% for Rahul as their PM choice. 43% say BJP will win while 39% say it will be Congress. While CNN-IBN is supporting the American cause clandestinely, Star is voicing the Chinese angle?
Singh is King because he has very successfully launched himself as a shrewed politician. The economist in him has taken a back seat and that is visible in the Inflation graph. Hope this trust vote will reawaken the economist in him. The challenge for him in the next six months is to shine in both aspects and that is the only way they can hope to be back in the saddle.
By tomorrow evening we will know. but what. We will know who are the deserters. we will know who are the new king makers. we will know who are the next six months only cabinet ministers. we will know which side spent the most. The rest is obvious atleast for me.
With in three months we will surely see an Expose mostly by Tehelka on some bribe video. They must have had ample opportunity in the past two weeks. Some scandal against BJP or Mayawathi will be exposed and then Congress will talk only about that and the people will be made to forget inflation and live with it for may be five more years.